Serbia Prepares for Uncertain Elections as Vucic Faces Opposition Challenge

Aleksandar Vucic, who has dominated Serbian politics for fourteen years, is set to face his most significant challenge in the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 25. The contest pits his ruling party against an opposition movement that emerged from widespread student protests. While Vucic resigned as president in late September to avoid running for a third term, he is now seeking the position of prime minister, a role he previously held from 2014 to 2017. The campaign has been defined by intense scrutiny over the fairness of the upcoming vote, with recent investigations raising serious questions about the integrity of the electoral process.

Concerns about electoral fraud have intensified after RFE/RL's Balkan Service identified approximately 500,000 individuals registered to vote without a complete address. These records often lack specific street names or house numbers. The investigation also found hundreds of voters listed at public facilities such as social welfare centers and at residential addresses that could not logically accommodate so many people. These irregularities echo suspicions from the 2023 election, where international observers reported irregularities including the transportation of voters from neighboring Bosnia-Hercegovina and instances of voter intimidation.

The election comes at a sensitive time, just days before the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy. On November 1, 2024, a renovated canopy at the city's railway station collapsed, killing sixteen people. The disaster triggered nationwide protests fueled by allegations of corruption at the construction site, which was a flagship project led by Chinese businesses. Although the government denied wrongdoing, the protests were met with police force and arrests. A particularly severe incident occurred on March 15, 2025, when authorities allegedly deployed an unlawful sonic weapon against peaceful demonstrators. Following another student protest in June, Vucic announced his resignation and the scheduling of early elections.

Current polling suggests that the Serbian electorate is deeply divided between supporters of the ruling party coalition and those backing the student movement. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia, described the upcoming vote as the first in over a decade with a genuinely uncertain outcome. The student opposition does not have formal leaders, and their candidate list consists largely of nonpartisan figures, including university professors. The list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, though the movement has clarified that his position does not guarantee a premiership if they win.

The Serbian government claims it has implemented all recommendations from the OSCE's observation mission following its criticism of the 2023 election. However, an interim report by the OSCE, which has deployed 300 observers to Serbia, contradicted this assertion. RFE/RL investigations have further highlighted issues in the voter register, noting that the number of eligible voters in Bosnia and Kosovo increased ahead of the vote. These regions are considered key sources of support for Vucic's Progressive Party among ethnic Serbs. Four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL that they faced pressure to vote for the ruling party, a practice also documented in several Serbian municipalities.

The political climate is further complicated by allegations of illegal surveillance and the arrest of government opponents. A statement from the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 cited reports of illegal monitoring of opposition members and attempts to undermine election observation missions. Research by the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University researchers alleged that at least sixteen cases of the Pegasus surveillance software, which is illegal in Serbia, were used in 2026. While the opposition blames the authorities for the spying, government officials have denied targeting their political rivals.

International observers have noted a decline in freedoms in Serbia over the past decade, a trend confirmed by the latest Freedom House report. Some US lawmakers have warned that Moscow may play an active role in the election, while the European Parliament has raised concerns about Russian influence operations. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Russia is deploying resources to monitor and disrupt Serbian citizens and the student movement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed support for Vucic ahead of the election.

During the campaign, Vucic pledged to maintain his foreign policy course, including his refusal to follow EU calls for sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The student movement has focused primarily on fighting corruption, though it has also opposed sanctions and reiterated support for Belgrade's stance of not recognizing Kosovo's independence. Serbia's progress in EU integration has stalled, with no new accession chapter opened since late 2021. Democratic backsliding, unresolved relations with Kosovo, and the refusal to sanction Russia are cited as the main reasons for this impasse.